'On the weekly chart, the Nifty 50 index has formed a bearish candle and remains below all short-term moving averages.'
The June quarter is usually considered as a seasonally strong period for the IT sector.
Stock markets will be driven by quarterly earnings by index majors, global trends and the RBI's interest rate decision this week after digesting news on budget proposals and US Federal policy outcome, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also dictate trends in equities. "On the domestic front, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting is scheduled from February 6-8.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled higher on Thursday, powered by a rally in banking and power stocks amid a largely firm trend in global markets. The stock markets mostly traded range-bound in the absence of any major trigger and persistent foreign capital outflows, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 144.31 points, or 0.18 per cent, to settle at 81,611.41.
One of the biggest advantages of index funds and ETFs is their low cost, points out Sarbajeet K Sen.
Trading in the equity market will largely depend on two major events this week - general elections result and the RBI interest rate decision - analysts said, adding that the benchmark indices may rally on Monday on exit polls' prediction of a massive win for the BJP-led NDA and strong GDP data. Exit polls on Saturday predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will retain power for a third straight term, with the NDA expected to win a big majority in the polls. Counting of votes will take place on June 4.
Stock markets would take cues from the biggest event of the week -- the US Fed interest rate decision, besides tracking the trends in global markets and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Last week, a heavy decline in smallcap, midcap firms, foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices in the international market dented investors' sentiments. Experts said equity markets may remain volatile in the near-term amid a host of global central bank's monetary policy decisions lined up during the week.
Interim Budget, the US Federal policy decision and quarterly earnings will be the major drivers for stock markets which may also see some consolidation this week, say analysts. Besides, investors would also focus on the trading activity of foreign investors and global trends for further cues. From the macroeconomic front, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Thursday.
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A key indicator of corporate efficiency may now be better than at any time since the turn of the millennium. The net working capital cycle - a crucial measure that tracks the time a company takes to convert current assets like inventory into sales and then collect the money from customers - has seen remarkable improvement. According to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the average company needed nearly 90 days to complete this cycle in 1999-2000.
Dalal Street had a roller coaster ride in 2024 from shattering record after record to facing heavy correction off-late but equity markets still rewarded investors with positive returns, driven by a surge in domestic fund flows and a resilient macro landscape. The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277.35 in September 2024, according to Motilal Oswal Wealth Management.
Hyundai Motor India Ltd has become the country's fifth most valuable auto firm by market valuation in its debut trade on Tuesday. Shares of Hyundai Motor India Ltd, the Indian arm of South Korean automaker Hyundai, listed at Rs 1,931, reflecting a decline of 1.47 per cent against the issue price of Rs 1,960 on the BSE earlier in the day. The stock slumped 7.80 per cent to Rs 1,807.05 during the day and finally ended at Rs 1,820.40 apiece, down 7.12 per cent.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have net sold domestic shares worth over $10 billion so far this month amid a shift to China, which not only offers attractive valuations compared to India but has also announced several measures to support the economy and the stock market in recent weeks. If the trend doesn't reverse, this will be the first time that overseas funds will yank out more than $10 billion from Indian equity markets in a month.
Equity mutual funds witnessed an inflow of Rs 35,943 crore in November, marking a drop of 14 per cent on a month-on-month basis, amid heightened volatility in stock markets driven by various macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events and US election results. Despite this, it marked the 45th consecutive month of net inflows into equity-oriented funds, reflecting the growing popularity of mutual funds among investors, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) released on Tuesday.
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare's June quarter numbers were better than Street estimates, led by strong sales and robust margins. The company, which owns leading consumer brands like Whisper, Vicks and Old Spice, posted a 12.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in sales at Rs 852.5 crore during the quarter. The double digit sales growth, led by expansion of its distribution reach, reverses a sluggish sales graph with three of the last four quarters reporting a fall in sales.
The stock of auto component major Bosch was up 2.5 per cent on Wednesday and in the process hit its 52-week high. Expectations of higher volumes of medium and heavy commercial vehicles' (M&HCV), rise in content supplies on account of BS VI stage 2 implementation from April, and improved profitability are some of the positives for the stock. In addition to this, the company appointed a new managing director and joint managing director last week, which will come into effect from July 1.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) caution on inflation, highlighted during the recent monetary policy meeting, may put investors' faith in fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) stocks to test, analysts said. They, however, believe FMCG stocks may ride through this near-term investor anxiety as related companies are, typically, well-equipped to handle inflation due to their pricing power and steady demand for essential goods.
Domestic equity markets will be driven mainly by quarterly earnings, global trends, and the movement in crude oil prices in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Investors would also keep an eye on the Middle East amid the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict and the trading activity of foreign investors. Markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Dussehra.
Shares of Bajaj Finance surged over 6 per cent on Thursday after the diversified non-banking finance company reported an 18 per cent increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,308 crore for the December quarter. The stock rallied 6.33 per cent intraday to touch Rs 8,249.95 - a 52-week high -- on the BSE.
Domestic macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide market sentiments this week, analysts said. After a record rally, markets may face volatile trends this week amid elevated valuations and investors would also keep a track of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar movement for further cues. "Potential volatility in the stock market is anticipated this week. Elevated valuations remain a concern, with investors now focusing on monsoon progress and its impact on the rural economy.
Even though Bharat Forge's performance in the July-September quarter broadly met Street estimates and defence orders are on the rise, the subdued outlook for its global business has prompted some brokerages to adopt a cautious stance on the company. Analysts have reduced the company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates to account for the slow recovery of its overseas subsidiaries. Valuations are also trading at long-term averages, which could limit potential upsides.
The focus of the company would be to develop its capability across segments of injectables, vaccines, biosimilars, inhalation and APIs to drive growth.
Stock markets are expected to see volatility this week due to potential risk from Omicron variant and monthly derivatives expiry, say analysts. "Markets will continue to see volatility and whipsaw-like movements as they respond to Omicron-related development and the monthly expiry," said Yesha Shah, head of equity research, Samco Securities. Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd said, "Markets are closely eyeing the COVID situation and any positive news could only help the index to make any sustainable up move else volatility will continue."
Quarterly earnings, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors will drive stock markets in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. It will be a trading holiday on January 22, with the Maharashtra government announcing a holiday in connection with the consecration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. Equity markets would also remain closed on Friday for Republic Day.
From its lows in December, the stock of Tata Motors is up about 15 per cent. The gains came on the back of better than expected December volumes in its UK-based subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). This coupled with gradual recovery in the global passenger vehicle demand, improving profitability due to product mix and lower commodity costs are expected to be key positives for the company.
With the first quarter earnings season coming to an end, the domestic equity markets would be driven by global trends and trading activity of foreign investors this week, analysts said. The movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee against the dollar would also drive trends in the market. "Macroeconomic indicators, trends in global stock markets and FII activities will be pivotal in shaping market trends in the coming days," Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
Even as most of its large-cap pharmaceutical peers have struggled to stay above water on the returns front, Zydus Lifesciences has been one of the big outperformers within the sector over the past year with a return of over 30 per cent. The gains have come on the back of multiple triggers such as the scaling up of new product launches in the US market, clearance for its Moraiya (Gujarat) facility and steady performance in the domestic market. Though it has been the top pharma gainer in the 2022-23 financial year (FY23), brokerages continue to maintain their 'buy' stance, given the strong visibility in the US market.
A muted revenue performance in the September quarter and weak management commentary weighed on the stock of consumer major Marico which shed 8.5 per cent to Rs 542 from its intraday highs on Tuesday. The company indicated that demand trends were similar to that of the June quarter with instances of increasing food prices and below-normal rainfall distribution in some regions impeding the anticipated recovery in rural demand.
The weak April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) results of the largest listed specialty chemical maker, SRF, and multiple global headwinds for the sector are expected to weigh on the prospects of Indian specialty chemical companies in 2023-24 (FY24). Stocks in the sector (down 7-18 per cent) have underperformed the benchmarks (up over 10 per cent) in the past three months, and given the multiple challenges, the trend is likely to continue. Kotak Institutional Equities expects a very weak quarter (Q1FY24) for the sector due to destocking, demand weakness across certain critical end-use industries, and price erosion amid intense competition from Chinese suppliers.
The stock of two wheeler maker Eicher Motors was the highest gainer among BSE 100 stocks, rising 6.6 per cent in trade on Friday. The gains came on the back of better than expected performance in the March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) and earnings upgrades by brokerages. Standalone revenues (Royal Enfield) were up 19.9 per cent year-on-year (YoY), led by an 18 per cent growth in volumes and a marginal uptick in realisations.
Titan posted better than expected revenue growth in the March quarter of the financial year 2022-23 (Q4FY23), powered by strong demand trends in the jewellery and watch segment. Standalone jewellery sales for the firm were up 24 per cent year-on-year (YoY) on a slightly lower base and aided by like-to-like growth of 19 per cent. The company highlighted that new buyer growth was at 15 per cent while average ticket size was up 8 per cent.
Since its October high last year, the stock of innerwear major Page Industries has been on a downtrend, shedding a little over 30 per cent of its market value. Higher competitive intensity, muted volumes, pressure on margins, and rich valuations have led to downgrades for the stock. The October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) performance was lower than the Street's expectations - both on volumes/sales and margins.
Shares of healthcare services major Max Healthcare Institute have gained over 23 per cent since the start of this month and the stock crossed the Rs 1 trillion mark on September 24. On September 25, it closed 989.85 apiece at the NSE. The gains were cornered on the back of a strong outlook for the sector and aggressive expansion plans for the chain led by acquisitions and organic growth.
Indian companies are generating more cash than ever. The net cash flow from listed firms' operations hit a new high of Rs 11.1 trillion in financial year 2023-24 (FY24), crossing the Rs 10-trillion mark for the first time, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data going back to 1990-91. The FY24 figure represents a 19.3 per cent jump over the previous year, even as quite a few companies are yet to release their numbers.
The current valuation is 38 per cent higher than the 10-year average of 22x and over 50 per cent higher than the 20-year average of around 20x.
The country's largest listed footwear brand by market capitalisation, Metro Brands, posted better than expected December quarter results for the 2022-23 financial year (FY23), riding on store expansion and strong same store sales (SSS) growth. Profitability too remained robust, even as net profit growth was marginally lower. The company, which retails across the Metro, Mochi, Walkway, Crocs and Fitflop formats, posted a 24 per cent growth in revenues over Q3FY22.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Besides, the focus will also be on foreign portfolio investors' trading activity, they added. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday for 'Mahavir Jayanti' and on Friday on account of 'Good Friday'.
The RBI interest rate decision, industrial production data for June and the ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the stock markets this week, analysts said. Other major factors such as global market trends, the movement of oil prices and the trading activity of foreign investors would also influence trading, they added. "The market will have an eye on the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which will be announced on August 10, 2023. We are heading towards the last batch of Q2 earnings of key companies such as Adani Ports, Coal India, Hero MotoCorp, Hindalco and ONGC, among others, which will lead to stock-specific movement," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
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